US farmers will sow even more cotton and soybeans than investors had expected, encouraged by weak grain prices which are set to send wheat area to a record low, and drive 3.6m acres out of production altogether.
The International Grains Council flagged the threat posed by a "poor outlook for profits" to its wheat price outlook, even as it raised again its estimate for world grain stocks, citing the bumper Australian harvest.
Rabobank lifted its forecast for wheat futures, and flagged potential for soybean price gains, in a briefing which saw cotton values easing ahead - despite Chinese and technical factors offering market support.
Don't be surprised if grain markets head into volatility later this week. For Thursday and Friday bring a key event for investors in the first official forecasts, that really count, for 2017-18 US crop prospects - which in turn have a big say in the outlook for prices worldwide.
Egypt made another huge wheat purchase, mainly from Russia - but it is paying more dearly for its Black Sea supplies, some of which is now being undercut by offers of French grain.
Soft commodities look better bets than grains, according to Goldman Sachs, which flagged the potential for firm demand to lift prices of cocoa and coffee, while record output dents corn and soybean futures.
Hedge funds hiked their bullish bets in agricultural commodities near to the highest in nine months, led by a buying spree in grains - which commentators cautioned could herald revived selling pressure.
China's long-term import needs of major crops, besides beef, pork and poultry, look higher than had been thought, Washington officials said, warning of a dent to the country ag output prospects from a subsidy shake-up.
Hedge funds returned to raising bullish bets on ags, lifting their net long in cotton above 100,000 contracts for the first time, and buying back wheat - amid a debate over whether a nine-year bear market is at an end.
29 November 2016
A fleet of seven new BlazeAid trailers are ready to help South Australians recover from natural disasters following donations from local grain growers, Glencore Grain and Viterra.
The seven fencing trailers...
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About Glencore Grain
Glencore Grain, a subsidiary of Glencore, has been operating in Australia for more than 10 years.
Glencore Grain is one of the largest buyers of wheat, barley, oilseeds, pulses, sorghum and cotton direct from Australian growers, with accumulation offices located across five key growing states; Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland. Read More